The only sure conclusion after reviewing the many polls that are getting coverage in the news today is that no one knows for sure who would win the election if it were held today. Also, and this is doubly true after Obama’s Wright story broke, no one really knows who will be the Democrat nominee. No one even knows who the Democrats actually prefer now.First from the Weekly Standard, a poll that flies in the face of conventional election logic. Ralph Nader could actually make a difference in the election this time around. Remember that he hurt Gore badly in 2000, but had little to no impact on the vote counts in 2004. Now it appears that voters might be willing to give that protest vote another go. More power to the progressive internal struggle, I say.

In a prospective general election match-up, the poll shows McCain at 45 percent, Clinton at 39, and Nader at 6 (11 percent not sure/someone else). It also shows McCain 44, Obama 39, and Nader 5 (11 percent not sure/someone else) in that potential scenario.

The Zogby poll also demonstrates McCain and Obama both make inroads into the other candidate’s base. McCain wins support of nearly one in five Democrats (19 percent), while Obama garners 15 percent of Republicans.

And in a McCain/Clinton/Nader matchup, the Arizona Senator does very well among independent voters (McCain 45, Clinton 28, Nader 15).

Of course, common sense tells you you’re more likely to survive a head-on collision with a school bus in a Chevy Corvair than see Nader take 15 percent of independents.

While I also find it hard to believe that Nadar could significantly affect the election after all the hard feelings that liberals have toward our favorite consumer watchdog, it is possible that the reason that he had such little influence in 2004 is that liberals saw George Bush as a known quantity that they couldn’t stand to allow back into office. McCain is unknown as a President, as are Hillary and Obama. I think all Republicans will be happy to have liberals giving Ralph a second look.

Voters also resoundingly want McCain answering that phone at 3AM.

Given the choice between Clinton and McCain, 55% preferred McCain while 37% would want Clinton to answer the phone, while 9% said they were unsure. [...]

Between McCain and Obama, 56% favored McCain while 35% preferred Obama, with 10% saying they couldn’t make up their mind on the question. [...]

McCain, who calls himself a conservative, makes big inroads across ideological lines on the question, the survey shows, as 25% of the very liberal and 32% of mainline liberals prefer he answer the phone instead of Clinton, and 23% of the very liberal and 35% of mainline liberals prefer him over Obama. Just 15% of conservatives prefer Clinton take the call, and 16% of conservatives would rather have Obama taking a crisis phone call instead of McCain.

If this number is accurate and that many hardline lefties trust him in a national security crisis, we might just see some secret Democrat voters crossing over in the election over misgivings about Obama’s inexperience and Clinton’s wishy-washiness.

Also, a USA Today poll has Clinton and Obama leading McCain slightly.

If the election were held today (and yes, we know it won’t be), Democratic contender Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would get 51% of the vote to Republican candidate Sen. John McCain’s 46%, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll estimates. In a match-up between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and McCain, Obama comes out ahead 49%-47%.

So you just don’t know what to believe yet. They all certainly make for some good blather-fodder, though, don’t they?

This entry was posted on Monday, March 17th, 2008 at 6:12 pm and is filed under 2008 Race, Hillary, McCain, Obama. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.