Apr 11 2008

McCain polls and VP speculation

Posted by: Neocon in 2008 Race, Conservatism, Democrats, McCain, Republicans

I didn’t get a chance to comment on any of the stories that I linked to yesterday since I was playing with the weather, so I want to take a little time to reiterate my position regarding McCain’s VP options in light of recent stories.

There’s a story from CNN stating that a McCain/Rice ticket could “win big.” I have no interest in seeing Condi as VP, and I’ve told you why more than once. What disturbs me about this story isn’t that it purports to show Condi as a viable Vice President pick, which she technically is, it’s that the story distorts the prospects. If what is shown in the story is the definition of “win big” then George Bush is as popular as Elvis.

But should McCain and Rice team up, the poll suggests the two Republicans would carry New York, defeating a Clinton-Obama ticket by 3 points (49-46 percent) and an Obama-Clinton ticket by 5 points (49-44 percent.)

A New York victory? Yes, a nice prospect, but it doesn’t equate nationally. Three points isn’t a landslide, it’s barely out of the margin of error. Compare that to McCain’s own recent polling.

WASHINGTON - Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama’s 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday. [...]

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain’s 45 percent. Factoring in the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.

Given how McCain has been able to hold his own in the face of little coverage, I just don’t see the any significant bump from adding Condi to the ticket, even setting my own misgivings about her addition aside.

John Hawkins did another one of his wonderful right-of-center blogosphere polls, this time concerning who should be McCain’s VP, but I didn’t participate because of e-mail lethargy. Nevertheless, you need to see these responses.

The top five choices?

5) Bobby Jindal: Governor, Louisiana (20.0)
4) Condi Rice: Secretary of State (22.0)
3) Fred Thompson: Former Senator, Tennessee (26.5)
2) Michael Steele: Former Lieutenant Governor, Maryland (28.5)
1) Mitt Romney: Former Governor, Massachusetts (29.5)

The bottom five?

5) Charlie Crist: Governor, Florida (20.0)
4) Colin Powell: Former Secretary of State (23.0)
3) Jeb Bush: Former Governor, Florida (23.5)
2) Lindsey Graham: Senator, South Carolina (26.5)
1) Mike Huckabee: Former Governor, Arkansas (42.5)

Honestly? I don’t know who it should be. What I do know is that I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up being any of that second list. I’m also fairly sure that good old Fred Thompson isn’t going to make the cut. Romney would be fine, but how would Huckabee’s 20% in the south take it? Could they get past his religion and previous liberal flirtations?

I hope so.

Update: Conservative Outpost picks it up.